MyDD :: Senate Chances Improving

Senate Chances Improving

by Doug in Virginia, Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 11:43:11 AM EST

I just received an e-mail from the Hoeffel campaign in Pennsylvania saying that according to a new poll, they are only down by 7%:

Survey USA Poll

October 6
Hoeffel - 36%
Specter - 54%

October 18
Hoeffel - 41%
Specter - 48%
Clymer - 6%

Clymer is a right-wing Consitution Party candidate taking some Toomey supporters.

This is a significant swing, that seems to be brought on by the fact that Hoeffel is finally airing commercials in areas of the state that don't know him. That's a 12-point bounce from TV! Should we send the campaign money and see if we can't pump that bounce?

I am growing more and more optimistic that we can take back the Senate. Things look better in AK, IL, OK, CO, KY, and PA. Things look a little closer in NC and FL, but still close enough that if we hold on to NC, FL, and LA, we may very well retake the Senate--of course the LA runoff race in December may be the deciding factor!

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May look even better (none / 0)

Did you see Inez Tenenbaum on Meet the Press? That wasn't even close. If the GOP can argue that kerry is a flip-flopper, then what the hell is Demint? What a spineless POS.

I agree. Except for NC FL LA, which are all still very winnable, the tide is on our side. We are also looking good in SD.

With Bunning screwing himself so badly, it looks like each side now has 6 potential takeaways. It's five if you concede IL and GA, but GA is MUCH closer than IL!

Solid Democrat: IL
Lean Democrats: OK, NC, FL, SD, CO, AK, SC
Dead Heat: KY
Lean Republican: PA, GA, LA

Best we can do: Democrats 55-45
Worst we can do: Republicans 57-43

If the above sentiment pans out and we win KY, it's Democrats 52-48. If forced to choose which candidates to support, I'd stop supprting Hoeffel. Specter often votes with us anyway. I'd concentrate on SC, FL, NC, and OK, and I have! I'm pretty confident that Daschle, Salazar, and Knowles will win.

Note that we are fighting on GOP turf! Kerry's only expected to win big in IL. FL CO PA are swing states, and the other 8 Bush is favored.

by bushbasher on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 12:13:24 PM EST

I don't know (none / 0)

I think for an incumbent like Specter to have a number at 48% (under 50) and Specter only now really starting to kick in on TV, and Kerry and lots of others starting to show up there to stump for him, and also the DSCC kicking in millions, there's a possibility here. I admit, it might be better spent in FL, NC, and OK. Personally, despite DeMint's recent fodder, I think SC and GA are both toast for us. PA has SOOO many swing voters, and I think Specter has voted with Bushies like 85% of the time, so I think there's a case to be made for Hoeffel...

by Doug in Virginia on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 12:33:03 PM EST

Re: I don't know (none / 0)

I can't give up the idea though since this is my home state!

by Doug in Virginia on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 12:33:52 PM EST
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