Last weekend I helped canvass in the Saratoga precinct of Fairfax County, in Northern Virginia, what appears to be shaping up as the strongest Democratic area of the state.
In 2000, this precinct went barely for Bush, at about 52%. Last weekend though, I polled 35 voters over two hours at their doors on three streets. The canvass was completely nuetral in tone and there was persuasion involved. The results:
Kerry supporters -- 21
Bush supporters -- 9
Refused Answers -- 3
Undecideds -- 2
This was in the wealthier, more affluent part of the precinct (it's all middle to upper-middle class area).
I was really surprised. If the precinct breaks even close to that trend (say 60-40 for Kerry) and the other big swing precincts in Fairfax County, VA break the same way, the largest jurisdiction in Virginia, that went 49-47 Bush-Gore in 2000, may capture about 55-58% or more of the vote for Kerry.
If that happens in VA, JFK WINS VA, people.
Can Kerry be winning in Virginia (Zogby has us down by 2%)?
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