Survey USA Poll

October 6
Hoeffel - 36%
Specter - 54%

October 18
Hoeffel - 41%
Specter - 48%
Clymer - 6%

Clymer is a right-wing Consitution Party candidate taking some Toomey supporters.

This is a significant swing, that seems to be brought on by the fact that Hoeffel is finally airing commercials in areas of the state that don't know him.  That's a 12-point bounce from TV!  Should we send the campaign money and see if we can't pump that bounce?

I am growing more and more optimistic that we can take back the Senate.  Things look better in AK, IL, OK, CO, KY, and PA.  Things look a little closer in NC and FL, but still close enough that if we hold on to NC, FL, and LA, we may very well retake the Senate--of course the LA runoff race in December may be the deciding factor!

Last weekend I helped canvass in the Saratoga precinct of Fairfax County, in Northern Virginia, what appears to be shaping up as the strongest Democratic area of the state.

In 2000, this precinct went barely for Bush, at about 52%.  Last weekend though, I polled 35 voters over two hours at their doors on three streets.  The canvass was completely nuetral in tone and there was persuasion involved.  The results:

Kerry supporters -- 21
Bush supporters -- 9
Refused Answers -- 3
Undecideds -- 2

This was in the wealthier, more affluent part of the precinct (it's all middle to upper-middle class area).

I was really surprised.  If the precinct breaks even close to that trend (say 60-40 for Kerry) and the other big swing precincts in Fairfax County, VA break the same way, the largest jurisdiction in Virginia, that went 49-47 Bush-Gore in 2000, may capture about 55-58% or more of the vote for Kerry.

If that happens in VA, JFK WINS VA, people.

Can Kerry be winning in Virginia (Zogby has us down by 2%)?